January 2021: What Will Happen When The Bubble Ends?

With an acute shortage of listings and continued demand from Toronto migrants, the County real estate market was firmly in bubble territory with a year-on-year median price increase of 41%.


Chart shows that January 2021 active listings in Prince Edward County were less that 1/4th the number a year earlier.

The January supply of homes for sale in the County remained unchanged from December at an all-time low.  Many of those who wanted to sell listed earlier in the year as prices rose and now the second wave of Covid-19 raised concerns about listing.


Chart shows that existing home sales in Prince Edward County during January 2021 were up slightly from a year earlier.

Home sales in January were ahead of January 2020, but not as far ahead as in the previous six months.  This acute shortage of listings has undoubtedly limited sales which were also slowed by the province’s lockdown due to the resurgence of Covid-19.


Chart shows that the inventory of Prince Edward County homes for sale during January 2021 was less than 2 months compared with close to 8 months a year earlier.

Inventory -measured by the number of homes for sale divided by the number sold during the month- remained at an all-time low in January.

% Selling in 7 Days or Less

Chart shows that the number of homes selling in a week or less increased 3-fold in January 2021 compared to a year earlier.

High demand combined with limited listings meant that homes continued to sell quickly by County standards in January. Almost 30% of homes sold in a week or less after listing, about three times the normal rate for the County at this time of year.

% Selling For List Price or More

Chart shows that 4 times the normal number of homes in Prince Edward County sold over listing price in January 2021

The percentage of homes selling for listing price or more in January continued to run about four times normal for the County.

Median Price

Chart shows that the median selling price for existing homes in Prince Edward County was up 41% in January 2021 compared with a year earlier.

With continued high demand and limited supply, it’s no surprise that prices continued to increase rapidly in January. The year-on-year increase in median price from January 2020 to January 2021 was an astounding 63%, but this apparent rate of increase was exaggerated by a dip in the median price last January.  The more reliable trailing 3-month median price (comparing the median for January 2021 and the two preceding months with January 2020 and the two preceding months) was still up an eye-popping 41%.


The Covid-19 lockdown imposed by the province did nothing to cool the seller’s market in the County and may have even caused it to accelerate further by limiting the supply of listings.

A median price increase of 41% per year cannot go on forever, especially when County prices are increasing much more rapidly than detached home prices in Toronto. According to statistics published by the Toronto Real Estate Board, median prices in the County are increasing at double the rate they are increasing in Toronto.

The million-dollar question: when house prices level off in Toronto, will the current price levels in the County be sustained or will there be a correction?

Treat Hull
Broker of Record
February 10th, 2021


The above noted information (the “Information”) is provided on an “as is” basis; it is believed to be accurate, but no representations are made that the Information is error-free.  The Information does not, and is not intended to, constitute professional advice. You should not act or refrain from acting based on the Information without first seeking professional advice from a realtor, investment advisor, accountant, lawyer, or other professional advisor as appropriate. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on the Information are hereby expressly disclaimed. 

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