Soldiers of the 41 Canadian Brigade Group carry ammunition for C9 squad automatic weapons during training at CFB Suffield, Alta., in October 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Under the title “How Canada could defend itself against an American invasion”, The Conversation has published a sober assessment by two academics arguing that PM Carney is correct to take seriously the “tail risk” possibility of US military action against Canada. Before you dismiss this out of hand, consider the following four scenarios:

1. Incited by Trump or his predecessors to avenge some imagined grievance, armed US “patriots” cross the Thousand Islands Bridge on their way to assault Parliament. (They’ve already had practice when they assaulted the US Congress.) Along the way, a police confrontation occurs and members of the armed US mob are injured/killed. US leader orders military action to ‘avenge this injustice by hostile Canadians’.

Under the title “How Canada could defend itself against an American invasion”, The Conversation has published a sober assessment by two academics arguing that PM Carney is correct to take seriously the “tail risk” possibility of US military action against Canada. Before you dismiss this out of hand, consider the following four scenarios:

2. Aided and abetted by US authorities, Alberta separatists who want to become the 51st stage some armed actions against the provincial government when their goal is frustrated. Some of the traitors to Canada are injured/killed in the action. US leader orders military action to ‘avenge this injustice against true American patriots in Canada’.

3. As the result of unrestrained greed and profligate mis-use of their water resources plus climate change accelerated drought, the US southwest faces upheaval because of water shortage. The US leaders demand that Canada agree to provide our water to them on terms that would make Canada a subjugated vassal state. Canada refuses and the Americans use their military to annex a corridor through Canada so they can seize our water resources.

4. I leave it to the reader to consider the possibility for US military action to seize Canadian territory in the north.

If you believe that any of these scenarios is even slightly plausible, then I urge you to consider now what your role would be if it happened? Would you be a collaborator? Indifferent? Or a patriot?